As New Services Track Habits, the E-Books Are Reading You

舊金山——互聯網時代以前，人們在創作、出版書籍時，常常盲目而又充滿希望。有時書會暢銷，但往往是滯銷，對於讀者開卷之後的行為，誰都一無所知。讀者會跳着讀還是粗粗瀏覽？快到結尾時，是慢下來還是加快速度？讀到性描寫時，是否會慢慢細讀？

一批初創企業正在用技術來回答這些問題，並且幫助作家們滿足讀者更多的渴求。用戶只需繳納統一的包月費，就能在多種設備上閱讀庫中的大量書籍，而公司則能獲取用戶的閱讀數據。這個想法類似於Netflix對電影的做法和Spotify對音樂的做法。

「自助出版的作者們會一哄而上，」大型獨立出版社Smashwords的首席執行官馬克·科克爾(Mark Coker)說。「很多人愛自己的書似乎超過了愛孩子，他們渴望任何一種能幫自己擴大讀者面的東西。」

舊金山的電子書庫Scribd在10月推出了註冊閱讀服務。上周，Smashwords與Scribd達成協議，在其書店裡上架了22.5萬本圖書。Smashwords的許多書目已在同樣於今秋起步的訂閱型初創企業Oyster的書店上架，後者位於紐約。

這種挖掘閱讀數據的舉措，從一個側面展示了消費者分析如何滲透到了我們文化中的每一個角落。亞馬遜(Amazon)和巴諾書店(Barnes & Noble)已經通過其電子閱讀器收集了大量信息，但它們將這些數據當作專有信息。如今，包括總部位於北卡羅來納州的Entitle在內的一些初創企業，希望通過公開這些數據來獲利。

Scribd首席執行官特里普·阿德勒(Trip Adler)表示，「我們會很樂意地共享數據，這樣人們就可以利用數據，出版更好的書籍。」

住在阿肯色州西部的年輕作者奎因·洛夫蒂斯(Quinn Loftis)撰寫靈異成人浪漫小說。她會在Facebook、Pinterest、Twitter、Goodreads、YouTube、 Flickr，以及她自己的個人網站上與粉絲們進行廣泛交流。這樣的網絡社區活動，已經為這名33歲的作者帶來了六位數的年收入，而10年前，其中大部分 網絡社區都還沒有出現。但如果能獲得讀者如何閱讀其書籍的實際數據，她的市場調研就能達到最高水平。

她問道，「什麼樣的作者會放過了解讀者想法的機會呢？」

Scribd剛剛開始分析註冊用戶數據。以下是一些籠統的發現：懸 疑小說篇幅越長，讀者就越可能跳到結尾查看兇手是誰；與商業書目相比，讀者讀完傳記類書籍的可能性更大；但對於瑜伽書籍，讀完一個章節就足夠了；讀者瀏覽 浪漫小說的速度比宗教書籍快，而瀏覽速度最快的是情色文學。

在Oyster的書庫里，有一本名為《女人想要什麼》(What Women Want)的暢銷書，該書的推廣詞為「帶你了解女人所思所想，這樣你才能給她驚喜」。每一個點開該書的讀者都讀完了整本書。另一方面，小阿瑟·M·施萊辛 格(Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.)的《美國歷史的循環》(The Cycles of American History)卻沒能給任何人帶來驚喜：點開該書的讀者只有1%讀完了全書。

Oyster的數據顯示，如果全書分成了較短的章節，那麼讀者讀完的可能性就會提高25%。這是一個不可避免的結果，因為人們一天當中會用一些較短的時間段，在iPhone上閱讀。

太多信息可能會讓一些作者感到厭煩。但另一些作者會非常着迷，只要他們能自己做主。

「我們會將這些數據提供給作者嗎？當然，」哈珀柯林斯出版集團 (HarperCollins Publishers)首席數字官尚塔爾·雷斯蒂沃-阿萊西(Chantal Restivo-Alessi)說。「但書要怎麼寫，是要由作者決定的。創作過程是一個神秘的過程。」

Scribd和Oyster的經營方式如下：書庫中包括從傳統出版社取得的大約10萬本書，讀者每月支付10美元，想讀多少就可以讀多少。

Oyster的管理層包括兩名前谷歌(Google)工程師，該公司的CEO埃里克·斯特龍伯格(Eric Stromberg)說，「我們喜歡閱讀量很大的讀者。」但Oyster卻無法承受太多的此類讀者。

這可以被稱作「時時樂」(Sizzler)問題。上世紀90年代，這家牛排連鎖餐廳試圖通過提供「不限量自助」沙拉吧增加銷售額。沙拉吧越來越受歡迎，其規模也不斷加大。但隨着越來越多飢腸轆轆的顧客光顧餐廳，這家連鎖店被迫降低質量，導致顧客流失，最終致使餐廳破產。

「當然，如果你提供自助餐，而每個人都盡情享用，這樁生意就不會有利可圖，」Scribd的阿德勒說。「但總體上，人們只會吃這麼多。」他表示，只有2%的Scribd註冊用戶每個月的閱讀量會超過10本書。」

這些初創公司都被迫闡明只有學術理論家和中學英語老師才常常思考的問題：讀多少才算讀過了一本書？因為這是向出版商和作者付費的依據。

這些公司拒絕介紹它們的商業模式，但出版商表示Scribd和 Oyster的協議條款稍有不同。Oyster規定，讀者讀了一本書10%的內容，就會被正式歸類為「已讀」，此時Oyster就需要向出版商支付標準的 批發價。Scribd的條款比較複雜。如果讀者的閱讀比例超過10%，但低於50%，就支付10%的銷售額，閱讀比例超過50%就相當於全額銷售。

兩家公司都表示，反響非常熱烈，但都沒有提供精確數據。

SAN FRANCISCO — Before the Internet, books were written — and published — blindly, hopefully. Sometimes they sold, usually they did not, but no one had a clue what readers did when they opened them up. Did they skip or skim? Slow down or speed up when the end was in sight? Linger over the sex scenes?

A wave of start-ups is using technology to answer these questions — and help writers give readers more of what they want. The companies get reading data from subscribers who, for a flat monthly fee, buy access to an array of titles, which they can read on a variety of devices. The idea is to do for books what Netflix did for movies and Spotify for music.

“Self-published writers are going to eat this up,” said Mark Coker, the chief executive of Smashwords, a large independent publisher. “Many seem to value their books more than their kids. They want anything that might help them reach more readers.”

Last week, Smashwords made a deal to put 225,000 books on Scribd, a digital library here that unveiled a reading subscription service in October. Many of Smashwords’ books are already on Oyster, a New York-based subscription start-up that also began in the fall.

The move to exploit reading data is one aspect of how consumer analytics is making its way into every corner of the culture. Amazon and Barnes & Noble already collect vast amounts of information from their e-readers but keep it proprietary. Now the start-ups — which also include Entitle, a North Carolina-based company — are hoping to profit by telling all.

“We’re going to be pretty open about sharing this data so people can use it to publish better books,” said Trip Adler, Scribd’s chief executive.

Quinn Loftis, a writer of young adult paranormal romances who lives in western Arkansas, interacts extensively with her fans on Facebook, Pinterest, Twitter, Goodreads, YouTube, Flickr and her own website. These efforts at community, most of which did not exist a decade ago, have already given the 33-year-old a six-figure annual income. But having actual data about how her books are being read would take her market research to the ultimate level.

“What writer would pass up the opportunity to peer into the reader’s mind?” she asked.

Scribd is just beginning to analyze the data from its subscribers. Some general insights: The longer a mystery novel is, the more likely readers are to jump to the end to see who done it. People are more likely to finish biographies than business titles, but a chapter of a yoga book is all they need. They speed through romances faster than religious titles, and erotica fastest of all.

At Oyster, a top book is “What Women Want,” promoted as a work that “brings you inside a woman’s head so you can learn how to blow her mind.” Everyone who starts it finishes it. On the other hand, Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.’s “The Cycles of American History” blows no minds: fewer than 1 percent of the readers who start it get to the end.

Oyster data shows that readers are 25 percent more likely to finish books that are broken up into shorter chapters. That is an inevitable consequence of people reading in short sessions during the day on an iPhone.

A few writers might be repelled by too much knowledge. But others would be fascinated, as long as they retained control.

“Would we provide this data to an author? Absolutely,” said Chantal Restivo-Alessi, chief digital officer for HarperCollins Publishers. “But it is up to him how to write the book. The creative process is a mysterious process.”

Here is how Scribd and Oyster work: Readers pay about $10 a month for a library of about 100,000 books from traditional presses. They can read as many books as they want.

“We love big readers,” said Eric Stromberg, Oyster’s chief executive. But Oyster, whose management includes two ex-Google engineers, cannot afford too many of them.

This could be called the Sizzler problem. In the 1990s, the steak restaurant chain tried to beef up sales with an all-you-can-eat salad bar, which got bigger as it got more popular. But as more hungry customers came, the chain was forced to lower quality, which caused customers to flee, which resulted in bankruptcy.

“Sure, if you had a buffet and everyone ate everything, it wouldn’t be a profitable business,” said Mr. Adler of Scribd. “But generally people only eat so much.” Only 2 percent of Scribd’s subscribers read more than 10 books a month, he said.

These start-ups are being forced to define something that only academic theoreticians and high school English teachers used to wonder about: How much reading does it take to read a book? Because that is when the publisher, and the writer, get paid.

The companies declined to outline their business model, but publishers said Scribd and Oyster offered slightly different deals. On Oyster, once a person reads more than 10 percent of the book, it is officially considered “read.” Oyster then has to pay the publisher a standard wholesale fee. With Scribd, it is more complicated. If the reader reads more than 10 percent but less than 50 percent, it counts for a tenth of a sale. Above 50 percent, it is a full sale.

Both services say the response has been enthusiastic, but neither provided precise numbers.